Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Snow starting on Thursday with 5-10 cm expected during the day combined with moderate Southwest winds and alpine temperatures around -5. Snow and moderate wind continuing on Friday with another 5-10 cm forecast during the day and a further 10-15 cm overnight when the winds become strong Southwest and the freezing levels climb up to about 2000 metres. The North of the region may be cooler as the bulk of the warm air should be deflected to the Southeast by the cold arctic air that is sitting on the Eastern side of the Rockies. The storm should continue on Saturday with another pulse of 10-15 cm of snow and strong Southerly winds pushed into the region from the coast.

Several natural and skier controlled avalanches up to size 1.5 mostly on North or Northeast aspects. There were a couple of remotely triggered avalanches up to size 2.0 that released down about 40 cm above the end of January crust. There was one skier accidental size 2.0 (reported yesterday as size 1.5) on a Northeast aspect in the alpine that released down 40-60 cm on the mid-January surface hoar (3.0 mm).

A thin layer of new storm snow (10-20 cm)has fallen on a variety of old surfaces, including hard crusts, breakable crusts at higher elevations, and surface hoar in some areas. A melt freeze crust can be found up to about 2200m. At higher elevations, the surface is heavily wind affected. The depth of the mid-January surface hoar is highly variable across the region and it may have been destroyed by warmth at low elevations. Where it does exist, it can be found between 30 and 70 cm below the surface. The mid-December surface hoar layer lies below a strong mid-pack down about 60 to 120cm. Both of these persistent layers have been reactive recently. The mid-November weak layer of crusts and facets can still be found near the bottom of the snowpack. It has been unreactive lately, but should be on your radar in shallow snowpack areas where there is more chance of triggering.