Avalanche Forecast

Good

Tuesday: Dry, cloudy with some sunny breaks. Treeline temperature around -6C. Ridgetop winds aronud 40 km/h from the W or NW.Wednesday: Dry with some good sunny periods. Temperatures starting cold but rising to around -3C in the afternoon. Winds around 30 km/h from the NW.Thursday:  Light precipitation becoming more steady later in the day. Temperatures rising in the afternoon to around -1C. SW winds up to 60 km/h.

A size 3 natural avalanche was reported from the Bugaboos on Sunday on a NE aspect at 2650m, triggered by a cornice release that pulled out a large slab all the way to ground on the slope below. Smaller avalanches have been observed in response to ski cutting and recent loading from new snow and wind on both south and north aspects. Outside the boundary of this region to the north of Golden, there was an incident in the Hope Creek drainage, where four people were involved (with two sustaining injuries) in a size 3 avalanche in an alpine feature.

Up to 25 cm of new snow from the past 5 days has been redistributed by moderate to strong northwest and southwest winds. These new windslabs cover older, stiff, dense wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at and above treeline. In the upper 80 cm of the snowpack a couple persistent weak layers exist, comprising of surface hoar and a facet/crust combo. This interface has produced variable results with snowpack tests, and operators are keeping a close eye on them as the load above increases and/or a slab develops.A bigger concern, especially in the Northern part of the region where the snowpack is thinner and more variable is weak faceted and depth hoar crystals combined with a crust from early October. This is now down around 80-120 cm. This deep persistent weakness may be stubborn to trigger, especially in deeper snowpack areas, but the sensitivity to triggers likely increases in shallower locations, especially on steep, convex, north-facing slopes.