Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with flurries beginning late afternoon. Winds light from the southwest. Alpine temperatures of -11.Thursday: Periods of snow delivering 15-25 cm of new snow. Winds moderate to strong from the southwest. Freezing level rising to 1600 metres with alpine temperatures of -3.Friday: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing approximately 5 cm of new snow. Winds strong from the southwest. Freezing level to 1400 metres with alpine temperatures of -4.

Reports from Monday include numerous explosives results from Size 1-2, with a single report of a remotely triggered Size 1.5. It should be noted that these observations took place in the north and northeast of the region, where the least new snow was reported.Reports from Saturday and Sunday included observations of numerous size 1-1.5 loose dry avalanches running both naturally and under skier traffic. Natural and human triggered storm slab avalanches have also been reported, but thus far have been focused in adjacent forecast regions in the Columbias. These should be taken into consideration in spite of geography in the absence of local observations. As for Wednesday's outlook, our storm slabs are expected to remain sensitive to human triggering, especially where they overlie weak surfaces and in wind-exposed areas where slab properties have developed more quickly. With this in mind, the potential for storm slab avalanches to 'step down' to deeper weaknesses in previously shallow snowpack areas should not be overlooked. This is especially important in areas that received the deepest accumulations of new snow.

Up to 15 cm of new, low density snow fell again Monday night, bringing new snow totals from the past few days to around 50-100 cm. There has been a distinct southern focus throughout the storm, with the northernmost tip of the region only receiving about 25 cm of new snow. Our new snow lies over older surfaces that include wind slabs on a variety of aspects in wind exposed terrain, sun crust on steep sun-exposed slopes, faceted snow, as well as surface hoar on sheltered open slopes. The new snow's bond to these surfaces will likely be weak and touchy conditions should be expected at this interface as well as at mid-storm interfaces within the new snow over the short term. A persistent weakness buried mid January is now down 40-120 cm and consists of buried surface hoar in sheltered areas, sun crust on south aspects, and/or faceted old snow. It has generally stabilized but may be sensitive to triggering in isolated areas where surface hoar is preserved. Another surface hoar/facet weakness buried mid-December found 70-140 cm is generally considered dormant. This and deeper persistent weaknesses remain concerns isolated to shallow snowpack areas where they lie closer to the surface.