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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2012–Jan 3rd, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

Watch for a warming trend with possible inversion conditions on Thursday. Combined with clear skies, this may produce a cycle on Solar Aspects. 

Weather Forecast

Discussions indicate steady temperatures and minimal precip through Wed evening with North winds. Thurs morning may be the start of a warming trend as winds shift back to the West. There is potential for inversion conditions that may cause a spike in avalanche activity and affect surface conditions treeline and above.

Snowpack Summary

 2cm of HN sits above a thin suncrust on S aspects. 5cm to 10cm of recent HST now hides thin windslabs found in open lee areas treeline and above produced by moderate SW winds. S and W slopes are predominantly scoured with crossloaded features.  Up to 350cm in loaded areas at treeline with 200cm being the average.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity in loaded lee alpine features over the past 48hrs. Likely triggered with light loads, probably sluffs from steep terrain above. Depth 0.5-1m but not steeping down to Nov 6 mfc. Aspects ranging from E to NW.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

A few cm of recent snow now hides windslabs that were created by SW winds. These slabs are variable and recent activity has shown that they are quite large in some areas and may be triggered by light loads. Use your poles to  help feel for these.
Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded featuresBe cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3