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Avalanche Forecast

May 4th, 2023–May 5th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Glacier.

Natural avalanches are still possible, limit time in avalanche path runouts on all aspects.

With no overnight refreeze for a week, the upper snowpack is very soft, making for difficult travel and hazardous riding conditions.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control today has produced isolated sz 4 and numerous sz 2-3 avalanches. This is capping off a very active week of spring avalanche activity. Which had wet/loose natural and controlled avalanches with numerous sz 3, and isolated sz 4's. Many avalanche paths failed down to ground once the avalanches reached Treeline elevations and lower.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps have penetrated the snowpack creating an moist, isothermal snowpack treeline and below on all aspects and into the alpine on solar aspects. Buried crusts in the upper 50 cm are breaking down. Shallow snowpack features have loose, weak snow to ground.

20-40cm above the ground the Nov 17 basal weakness can still be found in many areas.

Weather Summary

Warm and dry weather will come to an end on Fri, as a trough of low pressure brings light precip and dropping freezing levels.

Tonight: Clear, Alpine Low 8°C, FZL 3200m, mod E ridgetop wind

Fri: Sunny w/cloudy periods, Alp High 12°C, FZL 3500m, mod, gusting to strong E winds

Sat: Cloudy w/sunny periods + iso wet flurries, Alp high 6°C, FZL 2800m, mod S winds

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of runout zones.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

With intense solar radiation and no overnight refreeze, the snowpack is moist and weak. Wet loose avalanches could be triggered in steep terrain. We have observed these loose avalanches stepping down to the basal weakness at Treeline elevations and lower.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Several hot days with no overnight refreeze has warmed and destabilized the snowpack. This early season basal weakness has woken up below 2000m and is producing very destructive avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4