Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Human-triggered avalanches were the story on Tuesday and this will continue with the warm weather, a cohesive storm slab, and persistent weak layers buried in the upper meter.
Time to practice conservative travel techniques!!
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Connaught Creek was busy, with reports of people remote-triggering avalanches to sz 2 on Video Pk, 8812 Bowl, Dispatcher Bowl, and Balu Pass shoulder.
On Cheops 2, a natural sz 3 storm slab with full propagation across the bowl and adjacent ribs/gullies failed early Mon am.
Low elevation areas (below 1300m) have significant pinwheeling on the surface. Steep solar slopes are releasing moist/loose avalanches to sz 2 with direct sun.
Snowpack Summary
40cm of heavy storm snow sits on a faceted upper snowpack. Strong to extreme SW winds created windslabs at Alpine and Tree-line elevations.
A weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) is 50-80cm down. This layer is easy to pick out in the snowpack and is reactive to human loads.
Low elevation zones with a thin snowpack should be treated with caution. The cold, weak facets at the base have undergone rapid change and are now nearly isothermal.
Weather Summary
Clouds with sunny breaks, chance of a temp inversion on Thurs am, temps staying mild with no solid refreeze in the valleys.
Tonight Cloud with isolated flurries. Alp low -7°C. Ridge winds W 20-40km/h. FZL 1200m
Wed Cloudy with sunny periods. Alp high 0°C. Ridge wind SW 25km/h. FZL 1600m
Thurs Mix of cloud/sun. Alp high -1°C. Ridge wind SW 30-55km/h. FZL 1600m
Fri Cloudy. Alp high -2°C. Ridge wind W 15km/h. FZL 1700m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Avoid steep, sun-exposed slopes when the air temperature is warm or when solar radiation is strong.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Fresh snow, strong winds, and warm temperatures have created a storm slab. This sits on (yet another) weak layer of facets. Expect this to be most reactive in immediate lee features, such as along ridge-lines and cross-loaded gullies.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
The new snow overlays a buried persistent weak layer (PWL). This weak layer consists of surface hoar, facets and/or a suncrust. The storm snow has overloaded this PWL, producing large avalanches where it is present in the start zone or within the track of the path.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3