Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear, light northwest winds, treeline low temperatures near -7 C, freezing level dropping to sea level.

Wednesday: Cloudy, scattered flurries in the afternoon with up to 5 cm of snow, light west winds, treeline high temperatures near -5 C, freezing level around 200 m.

Thursday: Cloudy, scattered flurries with up to 5 cm of snow by midday, moderate west winds, treeline high temperatures rising to -1 C in the afternoon, freezing level rising to 1100 m by end of day.

Friday: Cloudy, 20-30 cm of snow, winds shifting to southwest and increasing to strong, treeline high temperatures near -1 C, freezing level staying around 1100 m.

It may be possible to trigger avalanches in wind-drifted terrain at upper elevations on Wednesday.

On Sunday, operators on the North Shore reported numerous small (size 1) wet loose avalanches. In the backcountry, observers reported small (up to size 1.5) slab avalanches releasing in the storm snow near Tim Jones Peak, Pump Peak, Mt Strachan, and Mt Mulligan.

25-50 cm of snow accumulated over the weekend above 1100-1300 m. Below these elevations, the recent snow has cycled through a melt-freeze cycle (see this MIN report from Hollyburn). 

Strong southwest winds during Sunday's storm have since become moderate from the northwest and have redistributed the recent snow into wind slabs across a range of aspects at upper elevations. Monitor for changing slab conditions as you move into wind-exposed terrain.

Where fresh snow remains, it is settling and stabilizing. However, there is lingering uncertainty as to whether a layer of surface hoar may be preserved above a crust in areas further north and east in the region at upper elevations. If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, carefully evaluate the bond of the new snow to the crust.

Below the recent snow, a thick and supportive crust extends to mountain top. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong. In isolated areas north in the region, a layer of faceted grains on a crust may be found 150-200 cm deep; however, observations suggest that this layer has become unreactive. 

• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
• If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.