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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 7th, 2017–Jan 8th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Avalanche danger will increase with the incoming storm on Sunday night.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Flurries starting in the late afternoon, moderate to strong southeast winds, freezing level rising to 800 m.MONDAY: Flurries continuing with 20-40 cm of new snow by the morning, moderate southwest winds, freezing level around 800 m.TUESDAY: Flurries with 10-20 cm of new snow, light east winds, freezing level dropping to sea level with treeline temperatures around -3.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, ski cutting produced several loose dry avalanches running size 1 in the new snow and running long and fast. The poor bond between the new snow and the old snow interface could become a problem when the next storm arrives. Expect avalanche activity to increase with the incoming storm.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is expected to arrive Sunday afternoon and bury the 15 cm of settling snow from Friday's storm. Sustained southerly winds are building small wind slabs on north-facing slopes in the lee of exposed features. Friday's snow buried a variable interface composed of faceted (sugary) snow and old hard wind slabs. Recent reports suggest the snow has not bonded well to this interface, which means it could become a sliding layer during the next storm. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and stable.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Small wind slabs will build throughout the day in exposed terrain as southerly winds pick up ahead of Sunday night's storm.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2