Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 28th, 2012–Mar 29th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

If the snowfall exceeds the forecast amounts, HIGH danger may be possible. Stay locally aware.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect precip to ramp up overnight and into Thursday morning, with as much as 20cm of new snow and strong southerly winds. The freezing level should fall overnight then reach a maximum of 1300m. Friday / Saturday: Precipitation should taper dramatically and the sun will poke out again, with winds turning from southerly to westerly. Freezing levels will fall as the flow turns, bringing more seasonal temperatures.

Avalanche Summary

Loose wet avalanches up to size 2.0 triggered by daytime heating have been reported at lower elevations, as well as isolated cornice releases in the high alpine to size 2.0 that did not release deeper layers. Small windslab events have also occurred on lee and cross loaded terrain features.

Snowpack Summary

Above 1700m, up to 20cm of new snow now overlies the March 26 interface. This has been accompanied by consistently moderate and at times gusty southwesterly winds forming windslabs in lee locations. Cornices are huge, and will continue to grow with this weather pattern. The March 26 interface is a crust on all aspects except true north treeline and alpine, where small surface hoar (5mm) is present in sheltered places. At lower elevations, the surface snow has had less recovery and the upper snowpack is predominantly moist. Below the newest storm interface, last week's storm snow is well settled and bonded. The deep, persistent early February layers linger in the snowpack and remain a concern with heavy triggers.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New windslabs are forming with the new snow and increased wind. Some interesting thin slabs that formed from previous downflow winds are now lightly buried.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Cornices

Large cornices loom at ridgecrest and will grow under the current conditions. They may act as a large trigger to deeper weaknesses.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 6

Loose Wet

The moist new snow will sluff in steep terrain at lower elevations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3