Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Saturday: Cloudy with flurries or periods of snow developing later in the day 5-15 cm. The freezing level is near 500 m and winds are light from the NW switching to moderate W-SW. Sunday: Periods of snow, easing in the afternoon 10-20 cm. The freezing level should climb to around 1500 m and winds are moderate to strong from the W-SW. Monday: Periods of snow. The freezing level lowers to around 1000 m.

Observations during the storm yesterday are very limited; however, there was one report of loud rumbling in the Shames backcountry. I would expect a fairly widespread and large natural avalanche cycle occurred. Natural avalanche activity should taper off heading into the weekend, but rider triggering remains a concern. Lower elevation explosive control on Thursday also produced wet avalanches up to Size 2.5.

Southern Sections: The Boxing Day blitz dumped another 50-80 cm of heavy snow, accompanied by strong southwest winds. Freezing levels peaked near 2000 m right along the coast and around 1400 m further inland towards Terrace. Recently buried weaknesses of surface hoar and/or facets are now well over 1 m deep and were likely flushed out or squashed by the heavy snowfall. Forecast cooling should help stabilize the snowpack and result in a surface crust forming below treeline. Northern Sections: Storm snow totals are closer to 30-40 cm. Fresh dense wind slabs are likely in exposed lee terrain and cross-loaded features. A recently buried surface hoar layer is now down around 50-60 cm and is likely primed for rider triggering. A facet/crust layer exists near the base of the snowpack, primarily on higher NW through E facing slopes. Triggering this layer may be unlikely, but if triggered the resulting avalanche would be very large and dangerous.