Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 28th, 2016–Feb 29th, 2016

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Watch out for reactive pockets of soft slab in wind loaded features or on steep unsupported slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: up to 5cm of new snow overnight with isolated flurries continuing through the day, light variable winds, 1500m freezing level. TUESDAY: light to moderate snowfall through the day with accumulations of up to 10cm expected, moderate southerly winds, 1800m freezing level. WEDNESDAY: snowfall continuing overnight with up to 10cm expected before a clearing trend through the day, light westerly winds, freezing level of 1900m.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated artificially and naturally triggered storm slab, wind slab and cornice avalanches continue to be reported. Cornices are large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

Snowpack Summary

Cornices are large and weak. The new snow may sit above crust and or moist snow that was reported on all aspects and elevations although some high north facing features may have stayed cool. In wind loaded features, soft slabs may be reactive to human triggers. The mid-pack is generally well settled. A layer of surface hoar buried in early January can be found down 1-2 m. In most places it is thought to be capped by a thick widespread crust although it has produced some recent isolated hard sudden planar snowpit test failures in thinner snowpack areas.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate winds and new snow have formed fresh slabs, especially in steep lee features in the alpine and at treeline.

Travel on ridges or ribs to avoid wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices are reported to be large and weak. Several have collapsed recently and the weight of a person may be enough to cause a cornice failure.

Avoid steep slopes below cornices.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4