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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 1st, 2012–Feb 2nd, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure moving in from the coast is expected to produce light southerly winds combined with broken skies and freezing levels rising to about 1300 metres by Thursday afternoon. Warm temperatures are forecast to persist through the night and into Friday morning. More clearing is expected on Friday. Freezing levels are expected to rise to about 1700 metres, and solar radiation should be strong on sun exposed slopes. Alpine temperatures are forecast to be around -3.0 in the alpine. Saturday is expected to be mostly clear with temperatures a few degrees cooler than Friday.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 1.0 loose dry sloughs reported from the 12 cm of new snow that fell in "power flurries" in the Duffey Lake area. When the sun popped out it caused loose snow naturals on east and south aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Another 10-15 cm fell in the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, adding to the weekend storm snow. During the weekend storm, rain fell to about 1700m, but freezing levels fluctuated during the storm. In the Duffey Lake area light amounts of more recent snow now sit above a new rain crust that has formed below 1700m while fresh soft wind slabs rest over cohesive stubborn wind slabs at higher elevations. In the Coquihalla area temperatures have been slower to drop. The warmer present temperatures combined with the higher snowfall/rain values in this area means that deep wind slabs have been slower to stabilize. More recent soft wind slabs now sit on top. With the recent wind and snowfall there are widespread unstable cornices. Any cornice fall would be destructive by itself, but could also be a trigger for the slope below. Persistent weak layers lower down in the snowpack have generally ceased to be of concern, except perhaps in very isolated, thin rocky areas. Most recently, the Coquihalla area has been receiving the most snowfall with current snowpack depths at treeline amounting to 390cm. In the Duffey Lake area, treeline depths are closer to 240cm.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New windslabs are expected to settle and bond with forecast warm temperatures and light winds.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Storm Slabs

Recent storm slabs are expected to settle and bond due to the forecast warm temperatures and light winds. If high freezing levels persist through the night and into Friday, the warming may be too rapid and cause instability.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Cornices

High winds, moderate temperatures and recent snow will have added to a cornice problem. Cornice fall will be easy to initiate and can become a trigger for the slope below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5