Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2013–Feb 2nd, 2013

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Poor - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

Saturday: No significant precipitation expected. Alpine temperatures near zero degrees with freezing levels rising to 1800 m. Ridgetop winds will blow moderate from the South.Sunday: The brunt of the frontal system will take effect, bringing light precipitation accompanied by strong SW ridgetop winds. Alpine temperatures near -4.0 and freezing levels falling to 700 m. Monday: Cloudy skies with light precipitation. Ridgetop winds will blow light from the SW. Alpine temperatures dropping to -9.0 with freezing levels lowering to valley bottoms.

Avalanche Summary

Natural sluffing from steep terrain features. On Thursday, a remote triggered slab avalanche size 2.0 initiated 50 m away from the skier at treeline elevation. Another report of a size 2.0 slab avalanche (skier triggered) also occurred. Both incidents were at 1200-1300 m on North aspects with crowns 50-60 cm deep, 30-40 m wide, and running up to 150 m in length.

Snowpack Summary

Touchy wind slabs have built on lee slopes (N-SW) and behind terrain features likes ribs and ridges. Up to 50 cm of snow sits on a variety of old surfaces including old wind slabs, scoured thin slopes, crusts and surface hoar. This interface has shown reactivity to rider triggers, especially around treeline and below treeline elevations. Warmer temperatures have promoted some settlement and consolidated the recent snow into slab-like characteristics. With little observations from the field it's hard to get a good handle on how widespread this layer is. I stress the importance to dig down and test weak layers. Become familiar with the snowpack in your neck of the woods. The average snowpack depth at treeline is near 100 cm but remains quite inconsistent across the region. A strong mid-pack currently overlies a weak base layer of facets/depth hoar. Triggering of this basal weakness may still be possible from thin spots, rocky outcrops or under the weight of larger triggers such as cornice fall and larger amounts of new storm snow.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.