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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 6th, 2012–Dec 7th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Friday: The effects of a ridge of high pressure building over the pacific will result in generally broken skies with the chance of locally light precipitation. Winds light from the northwest. Alpine temperatures -9.Saturday: Generally sunny skies and cooler temperatures. Light northwesterly winds and temperatures near -13 in the alpine.Sunday: Increasing clouds as a warm front approaches from the northwest.

Avalanche Summary

There are limited recent observations from this Region. Recent reports indicate a few natural avalanches to size 2.5 in the past 48 hours running in the recent storm snow 60-80cm deep on a north aspect at 2200m.

Snowpack Summary

40-60 cm of storm snow has fallen over the past 5 days. Instabilities (surface hoar layer, and a thin sun crust) may exist within or down 40-60 cm. We have very limited information on the extent or sensitivity of these layers, but suspect them to be reactive under the load of the new snow. A second buried surface hoar layer, down about 115 cm, and the early November rain crust (facet-crust combo), over 140cm down in some locations, remain a concern for isolated deep slab avalanches.Average snow depths at treeline seem to be between 140cm and 180cm. Elevations below 1500m are still reported as below threshold.In general, snowpack data is sparse in this region and significant variations likely exist from one drainage to another. Digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection. Any observations from the field are welcome at [email protected].

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.