We are at the top end of Considerable right now and if winds increase and transport the new snow around, the danger will likely increase back to high. Be very conservative at this time as the snowpack is very susceptible to human triggering.
Weather Forecast
Cold temperatures are forecast to continue with light winds. The most important this to pay attention to over the next few days will be the wind. Currently the snowpack is touchy and with some increased winds, we can expect a natural avalanche cycle to again begin in most open wind affected areas.
Avalanche Summary
Evidence of a medium scale avalanche cycle with avalanches up to size 2 observed on all aspects. We say a medium cycle because we were expecting to see more natural avalanches than we did. A few loose dry avalanches were also observed out of steep rocky terrain.
Snowpack Summary
50-60cm of snow has fallen over the past 72hrs with only areas of isolated wind affect. The Nov24th facet layer is down 55cm and the Nov6th crust is down closer to 80cm. Easy sheers persist within the storm snow and moderate sheers persist in a layer of facets overlying the Nov 6th crust. The snowpack is very weak and unstable at this time. Lots of cracking and whumpfing has been observed indicating that the current snowpack is unstable and susceptible to a human trigger.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.