If we get the forecasted snow, the game is about to change. Snow values could be as much as 30cm's and the winds will be strong. Expect a natural cycle. Loose dry avalanches and cornices should also be on one's radar.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday
Weather Forecast
Snow is apparently on the way. By tomorrow afternoon, the area may see as much as 30cm's. That will leave the week's totals at 50cm's. The temperatures are expected to be warm, topping out at -2 in the alpine. Freezing level will rise to just over 2000m by friday afternoon. Alpine winds will be from the SW and range from 45-55km/hr. Valley bottom winds will be around 20km/hr.
Avalanche Summary
No activity was noted today due to limited visibility.
Snowpack Summary
Light snow all day today has left up to 6cm's of new snow. In total, that means there is now 25-35cm's of low density snow on top of the Jan 31 interface. The temperatures were fairly warm today (-1 @ 1850m), so we can expect the new snow to settle quickly, and/or create wind slabs with only a light wind. The winds today were light at valley bottom and treeline elevations. The alpine was a different story. Weather stations all had moderate to strong wind values for most of the afternoon. Windslabs in the alpine are certain at this point. Treeline slabs are growing, but still limited to immediate lee areas and open slopes prone to cross loading.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.