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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2012–Mar 16th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

20cm of new snow forecast to fall overnight with Strong SW winds. Avalanche danger will remain at HIGH in Alpine areas.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

5cm of snow fell throughout the day on Thursday and additional 15cm is expected by Friday morning. LIght snowfalls will continue throughout the day on Friday and we should see freezing levels drop as well as temperatures begin to drop. Winds are forecast to be strong out of the SW throughout the day before tapering off later in the day on friday.

Avalanche Summary

No new observations due to limited visibility.

Snowpack Summary

5cm new snow over the past 24hrs. Storm snow totals are now close to 50cm at treeline with the valentines day surface hoar interface down 110cm. Moderate sheer persist within the storm snow down 20 and 40 and moderate sudden planer sheers persist at the valentines day interface down 110cm. In Commonwealth ridge area, at 2400m the surface hoar was down 110cm and up to 10mm big, very evident in the test profile. Propagation saw test 30/110 End indicate that any avalanche that is initiated is likely to propagate across a given feature.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.