Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Mar 14 – 15, 2014Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Heavy snowfall and strong winds may form a widespread storm slab on Saturday. Strong forecast SW winds should quickly form wind slabs on leeward aspects.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–6
    There are a couple of persistent weak layers within the snowpack. These have been quiet recently but may reactivate with the weight of the new storm snow. Smaller avalanches have the potential to step down to one of these deeper layers.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A substantial storm system is expected to reach the south coast on Saturday morning. There is some uncertainty regarding how much of the heavy coastal precipitation will reach the inland regions. Precipitation and strong winds are expected for Saturday and Sunday but conditions should progressively ease during the day on Sunday. A ridge of high pressure should begin to build on Monday.Saturday: Precipitation 5-15mm, freezing levels am: 1000m pm: 1800m, ridgetop wind 40-60 km/h SW in the afternoonSat. Night/Sunday: Precipitation 15-30mm, freezing levels am: 1800m pm: 1500m, ridgetop wind 40-60 km/h SW in the morning, easing during the dayMonday: Light flurries, freezing levels am: 800m pm: 1000m, ridgetop wind light NW

Avalanche Summary

No new slab avalanches reported. Isolated loose snow activity from steep solar features during the heat of the day.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow is sitting on a weak layer consisting of a well-developed sun crust on solar aspects, surface hoar in sheltered areas, and a widespread temperature/rain crust at lower elevations. Strong forecast storm winds will quickly form new wind slabs on leeward slopes.The warm weather has resulted in good settlement of the snowpack and most of the layers are well bonded. There are still two weak layers that remain a concern but the problem is becoming isolated. However, the weight of the new storm snow may reactive these layers. The early March layer is down 60-100cm and the early Feb layer is down roughly 1.5m. It seems like these persistent weak layers are more of a concern in the northern parts of the region but may still pose a threat in the Coq and south.

Regions covered