You may be powder-starved, but mother nature is calling the shots with touchy, high consequence conditions expected for the forecast period. Conservative terrain selection will become critical.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
The ridge of high pressure and the associated cold arctic air is on its way out giving way to a more zonal flow. A series of punchy systems will impact the Coast for the forecast period.Monday: Snowfall becoming heavy throughout the day with southern areas seeing the highest accumulations / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 800mTuesday: Heavy snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1000mWednesday: Heavy snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500m
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches were reported. I expect significant storm slab activity with forecast snowfall over the next few days.
Snowpack Summary
Current snow surfaces include surface facets, patchy surface hoar, thin wind slabs, scoured crust, or any combination thereof. Recent cold temperatures have also continued to facet shallow snowpack areas, including rocky or shallow bed surfaces left exposed by the last avalanche cycle. Once buried by the forecast storm snow, facets sitting on a hard surface or at ground level will most likely be the interface to watch.The mid snowpack is generally strong and well-settled; although basal facets remain on the radar as a low probability/ high consequence problem for some operators, particularly in the north of the region.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.