Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A warm front will bring precipitation to the south coast on Wednesday night and Thursday. Unsettled conditions are expected for Friday before the next system reaches the coast on Saturday.Wednesday Night: Precipitation: 5-10mm, freezing level: 1600m, ridgetop wind: light-moderate SWThursday: Precipitation 10-15mm, freezing level: 1600m, ridgetop wind: moderate SWFriday: A mix of sun and cloud, light scattered flurries possible, freezing level: 1300m, ridgetop wind: light SW-NWSaturday: Precipitation 5-10mm, freezing level: 1800m, ridgetop wind: moderate-strong SW
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported. Cooler temperatures and good overnight recovery over the last few days have improved stability. Expect increased avalanche activity with warming temperatures, new snowfall, and moderate to strong winds.
Snowpack Summary
New snow is sitting on a melt-freeze crust which exists on all aspects up to 2000m, and to mountain-top on solar aspects. The recent warmer temperatures have helped to strengthen and settled the upper snowpack, especially on solar aspects. Isolated wind slabs may still exist, although they are most likely gaining strength. Surface hoar growth has been noted on shady slopes at higher elevations, and large sagging cornices are becoming weak with daytime warming. The February crust/facet layer is now deeply buried 150-250 cm below the surface. This layer is mostly inactive at this time, but could re-awaken with extended warming, solar influence and large triggers like cornice fall.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.