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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2017–Feb 5th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Very touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers. Conservative decision making will be CRITICAL to playing safe in the mountains this weekend.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: 20-25 cm new snow/ Moderate to strong, southerly winds/ Freezing level 600m.Sunday: 10-15 cm new snow/ Moderate, southerly winds/ Freezing level 400m.Monday: 5-10 cm new snow/ Light, variable winds/ Freezing level sea level.Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with flurries/ Light, variable winds/ Freezing level sea level.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, there were numerous reports of human triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 running on a knife hard crust much further than expected. Human triggered avalanches are expected to be very likely throughout the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

35-40 cm of new snow is sitting on a knife hard crust/ice glaze. These storm slabs have been very reactive to human triggers. An additional 20-25 cm is expected by Sunday morning which will increase the expected size and destructive nature of the avalanches. The mid and lower snowpack are settled and well bonded with the average snowpack depth up to 300 cm at treeline.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.