Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Jan 8 – 9, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The surface crust has improved stability but poor ski conditions are being reported. Use extra caution anywhere that you are breaking through the crust.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–6
    Two persistent layers in the snowpack remain a concern. These are down around 60cm and 120cm. Triggering these layers is unlikely where the surface crust is supportive but use caution anywhere you are breaking through the crust.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    If the snow surface is moist or wet, sluffing is possible from steep terrain features. Use extra caution on or below sunny slopes. A wet sluff has the potential to trigger a larger slab avalanche.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

The warm air should break down on Friday. Freezing levels will progressively fall to around 1000m by Friday night. A mix of sun and cloud is expected during the day and alpine winds are expected to be moderate from the SW. On Saturday, a weak trough crosses the south coast. Mostly cloudy conditions, light flurries, and light alpine winds are expected. Freezing levels should be around 800m. Sunday should see a mix of sun and cloud, light alpine wind, and freezing levels around 800m.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive testing on Wednesday triggered only isolated pockets of storm snow. A natural cycle was reported on Monday and Tuesday. Natural avalanches are not expected on Friday. Ski triggering is unlikely in areas that are capped with a supportive surface crust but caution is required anywhere the crust remains breakable.

Snowpack Summary

A thick supportive surface crust is capping the snowpack.  Below the crust is the recent storm snow which is around 50-70cm deep and sits on a previously variable snow surface that included wind affected surfaces, a freezing rain crust or sun crust, and/or surface hoar or sugary facets in sheltered terrain. In the middle of the snowpack we might find the mid-December surface hoar or crust/facet weak layers. These are now typically buried 1m or more. The old surface hoar layer may be found in sheltered shady areas at and below treeline, while the slightly deeper crust/facet layer is expected to be more widespread but also more variable.

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