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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2018–Jan 22nd, 2018

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Continued stormy weather will keep the avalanche danger at HIGH.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Monday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 700mTuesday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 400mWednesday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 1000m

Avalanche Summary

There have been no new reports of avalanche activity, but that may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. On Sunday, an impressive natural storm slab avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred in response to new snow and wind particularly in the northwest side of the region. With ongoing stormy weather I would expect continued storm slab activity at all elevation bands throughout Tuesday

Snowpack Summary

By Monday morning expect about 30-60 cm of snow to have fallen in the past 48 hours. Thanks to the winds, I would anticipate redistribution of the recent storm snow at all elevation bands with storm slabs lurking in lee and cross-loaded featuresBetween 40-90cm below the surface you'll likely find the most recent crust that was buried mid-January. This crust exists on almost all aspects and elevations with the exception of northerly aspects above 1850 m and has produced moderate to hard, sudden results in recent snowpack tests.Beneath this crust the mid and lower snowpack layers including the mid-December and late-November crust layers continue to produce hard, sudden results in snowpack tests in the northern part of the region and may still be a concern for step-down potential.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.