A natural avalanche cycle is expected on Sunday as rain batters the snowpack. Conditions will be especially dangerous at higher elevations where rain falls on dry snow.
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Heavy rain (30-60mm) developing into wet flurries bringing up to 20 cm of new snow to alpine elevations. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing level dropping from about 2200 to 1500 metres over the day. Alpine temperatures dropping from around +2 to -2 over the day.Monday: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing approximately 5 cm of new snow. Light southwest winds. Freezing level to about 1100 metres with alpine temperatures of -5.Tuesday: Periods of snow bringing 15-20 cm of new snow. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level to 1500 metres with alpine temperatures of -3.
Avalanche Summary
Wednesday's rain to mountain tops produced numerous, small to very large natural, loose, wet avalanches as rain drenched all elevations. In some areas these avalanches were associated with debris flows and several washouts along forestry roads and trails have been reported. Avalanche activity has since subsided with a return to cooler temperatures and lower freezing levels but will increase again as the new snow and wind build storm slabs at alpine and treeline elevations.
Snowpack Summary
Approximately 20-30 cm of new snow overlies the November 23 crust. This 5-10 cm thick crust can be found on all aspects above 1400 m and overlies a generally rain-saturated snowpack. Below treeline the snowpack consists of wet snow from top to bottom. In high alpine and glaciated terrain a layer of weak sugary crystals that was buried on November 9th exists above a crust near the base of the snowpack. This interface is now buried 150-240 cm deep.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.