Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It remains possible to trigger a dangerous avalanche, especially on slopes with wind-stiffened or drifted snow. Although buried weak layers are improving, lingering signs of instability indicate we're not out of the woods yet. Choosing lower-angled, conservative terrain continues to be the best approach.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Regular readers of the forecast have heard plenty about the layer of surface hoar buried 1-2 feet deep throughout our area (learn more about it in the Discussion below). It was responsible for a large number of human-triggered avalanches last weekend. At that point, the seriousness of the situation was clear: large, rumbling collapses were commonplace, and, of course, people were triggering avalanches.

    In some ways, conditions are more dangerous now. As obvious signs of instability become less frequent and test scores improve, it's easy to gain false confidence. But on Galena  Summit yesterday, a group experienced a large collapse that shook snow off trees, and another reported poor test scores. Observations like these indicate it's still possible to trigger an avalanche, and continuing to choose lower-angled terrain remains the best way to manage this lingering instability.

    Additional Discussion:Winds increased yesterday and overnight, and there may be small, fresh wind slabs today in exposed terrain. These may be sensitive on their own, but are also adding weight to the buried weak layer described above. 

Avalanche Discussion

In last Wednesday's Digging Deeper talk about Understanding Weak Layers, we discussed how to tell when buried weak layers have improved. Did I provide a clear answer? No, because there isn't one. In the life cycle of a persistent slab problem, this is the most dreaded time. Signs of instability begin to wane, and the desire to break out of the mellow terrain you've been playing in begins to weigh heavily on your decision making. From a pure stability standpoint, conditions were more dangerous last weekend. But if you throw humans into the mix, I'd argue it's more dangerous right now.

While our area is known for some wicked facet layers, a widespread surface hoar layer isn't particularly common. Sure we get them occasionally, but they tend to be more "pockety" in nature and rarely produce such impressive avalanche activity as the one we have now. Surface hoar can be extra tricky—in fact, some studies have shown that it's the weak layer that produces the most avalanches that catch professionals. 

So how do you tell if a buried weak layer's improved? In the Digging Deeper talk, I said the key factor was time. Time since the last loading event (snowfall or wind), and time since the last sign of instability, and then a bit more time. With moderate to strong winds in the forecast today, and a few significant signs of instability still being reported, I don't believe we're there yet. So my advice is this: be patient. Even if you think conditions are getting better, what harm is there in giving it a little bit more time?

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