Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist at all elevations. Recent snow and wind have created 2 to 4-foot slabs that have greatly stressed the faceted persistent weak layers in the snowpack. You can trigger an avalanche within the 2 to 4-foot storm slab that has built over the last four days.  Large persistent slab avalanches failing on deeper faceted weak layers still remains a concern.  You may be able to remotely trigger an avalanche from a long-distance away.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 35 degrees as any avalanche triggered may run long distances and be able to injure or bury you. Pay attention to loud audible collapses and shooting cracks as these are indications of unstable snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    2 to 4-foot storm slabs that have been building over the last five days have greatly stressed the faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack.   These persistent weak layers will need time to adjust to this added load before we start to see faceted weak layers start to heal and strengthen. There are several faceted weak layers of concern in the snowpack with the most likely weak layer to trigger being the buried near-surface facets that formed during the 3 week high-pressure period before these storms. Below treeline, slabs rest on top of an entirely faceted snowpack to the ground.   A persistent slab avalanche that initially fails in an upper faceted weak layer has a chance to step down into deeper faceted weak layers creating a larger unsurvivable avalanche.

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks. You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche from the flats below or adjacent slopes. Stay off of or underneath slopes that are greater than 35 degrees as we may see avalanches running long distances today.

    Wide propagating slabs below treeline failing on the faceted weak snow that existed prior to the storm.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Transportable wind speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range out of the WSW over the last 24 hours have easily drifted the low-density new snow into stiffening slabs near and above treeline. We were finding these slabs to be stiffer on the surface and building on the leeward side of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain, near and above treeline. Cornices are starting to build on ridgelines and can break further back than expected. We have seen a couple of natural cornice drops that have triggered small wind slabs below.

    Pay attention to shooting cracks on the surface and obvious wind drifted pillows.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

    Wind drifted snow at ridgelines are creating stiffening slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines near and above treeline. Large cornices are also starting to build.

Avalanche Discussion

Thanks for the observations from Santa Fe.  We know that it's not part of the forecast zone and it seems like you guys are getting some snow and dealing with similiar avalanche conditions to us up here to the north.  Keep them coming and thank you to everyone that is submitting observations as they only help the forecast product and getting information to backcountry users.

It's nice to have it finally feel like winter again.  After 3 weeks of high pressure to begin January, a four-day weather event has dumped 24 to 32 inches of snow and 2.35 to 3" of snow water equivalent (SWE) in our mountains.  The sheer weight and loading of slopes finally culminated in a widespread natural avalanche cycle at all elevations starting early Tuesday morning.  The bulk of natural activity happened on North and East aspects where we had the greatest amount of loading, but we have had natural avalanches on west and south-facing slopes as well.  

With all the recent snow and transportable wind speeds over the last 24 hours we are finding stiffening wind drifted slabs near and above treeline.  Cornices on ridgelines continue to grow bigger and may break back further than expected on ridgelines. Cornices dropping on slopes act like a big trigger on the suspect slopes below.  With continued moderate SW winds today we can expect to see stiffening of slabs and more cornice development which may lead to natural avalanche activity on north and east aspects today.

Although many slopes avalanched there are still slopes that remain.  These slopes should be considered suspect and may just need you as a trigger to get them to fail.  Yesterday in travels we continue to get widespread collapses and shooting cracks at all elevations.  Below treeline the sheer weight of the new snow has greatly stressed the weak faceted snowpack that existed before this storm.  These avalanches have been able to propagate wide distances (300') in steep terrain (Thanks for the great photo Mitty!)  Near and above treeline wind events from January and December have created hard slabs with facets sandwiched between these layers.  These harder slabs could handle more weight but vary in thickness across the slope.  You're more likely to trigger these deeper weak layers where the slabs are thinnest which will be impossible to tell due to the 2 to 4-foot slabs on top from the recent snow.  A ski pole or probe are great tools right now to help identify what the underlying snowpack structure is like as it will not be obvious from the surface. 

If you are getting out continue to stay vigilant and not let your guard down in the search of powder.  Continue to practice good travel techniques, giving big avalanche paths wide berths and always thinking about the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche.  Even a small avalanche can have serious implications if it sweeps you over a cliff or into a terrain trap.  Sticking to low angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you is a great way to stay safe and enjoy the powder. 

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