Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Abundant fresh snow and wind from Saturday night through Tuesday morning has created dangerous conditions. Avoid travelling in or below steep terrain at elevations above 4,000' today.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    New snow totals vary widely across the Kootenai right now; but, you can count on finding lots of fresh snow in the Cabinets. The snowpack was showing signs of trending towards stability yesterday as it adapted to the weight of the new heavy snow that rolled in over the weekend. Last night we picked up another .4-1.2" of SWE with Bear Mountain on the high end of accumulation. The snowpack will have time to settle out Tuesday and Wednesday before another snowstorm is predicted to roll in with another 10" of storm snow by Thursday morning. Much of this new snow is resting on various layers of buried surface hoar which makes for a very reactive snow pack. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Much of the new snow this past weekend came in with the standard strong winds out of the southwest. Anticipate deeper slabs in the usual suspect locations below ridgelines on north east aspects below ridgelines.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    We still have some weak sugary snow overlying a firm, crusty base down deep in the snowpack, mainly a concern in th East Cabinets and Purcell ranges. This new loading of snow will be a good test to see if these deep weak layers respond. Likely trigger spots would be steep unsupported terrain and rocky slopes with thin coverage.

Avalanche Discussion

On Monday January 4th I rolled into the Keeler Rattle drainage after hearing reports of multiple natural and human triggered avalanches. Fresh avalanche crowns and debris could be viewed on much of the sheltered terrain above and south of the warming hut. Pit results were not showing the reactivity I was expecting as the weight of the new snow is likely smashing the surface hoar out and trending towards stabilizing. This is what makes buried surface hoar such a tricky criminal, it's very adept at leading one into a sense of security and complacency. You may get away with travel across a steep slope in one spot, then move to a slightly different location and have the rug pulled out from underneath you. Pit results and stability tests show we are on the right trend right now; but, with Bear Mountain snotel picking up and additional 1.2" of SWE in the last 24 hours we have reason to err on the side of caution right now.

As I mentioned in the bottom line, the best approach is to stay off of steep terrain today. The photo below was sent to me by a friend who reported seeing both natural and human triggered slides on Sunday. This photo was taken near the Keeler warming hut.

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