Avalanche forecast

Flathead Range & Glacier NP

Flathead Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Our snowpack is generally stable except in isolated areas where buried weak layers exist 1-2 feet below the surface. You can trigger a slide in locations without a surface crust, generally above 7000', or near rocky outcrops or convexities. Hedge your bets by choosing planar slopes with clean runouts. When in doubt, default to low-angle slopes for a stress-free experience. Continue to practice safe travel techniques of only one party on a slope and move from safe spot to safe spot. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    It has been nearly 2 weeks since the last reported avalanche on a buried weak layer. A strengthening snowpack has shown only limited signs of instability, particularly in areas harboring the 1/13 crust, which is generally found below 7000'. However, observations have been sparse due to the marginal riding conditions. Yesterday, a level 1 avalanche class in the southern Whitefish Range recorded propagation in snowpack tests on weak layers  2 feet below the surface. They chose to avoid likely trigger points such as convexities or thin areas and either steer away from slopes without the 1/13 crust or default to a low slope angle. Their decisions are a great example for all of us to follow. 

    (1/20/2021) Investigation crown of an avalanche that failed at roughly 7600' on a SE aspect.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, I was in the field cataloging avalanche activity from the recent Pineapple Express. My ski partners and I found impressive debris features in a local basin. Despite achieving the day's goal, we found ourselves tempted to ascend higher up the basin-wide debris path covered in frozen chunder. 

At a pause, one member voiced concern about the inevitable descent of this massive debris field. We found ourselves in paralysis, despite this unappealing slope being the largest red flag in Flathead County. This should have been an obvious, simple decision.

No one wants to play the role of Debbie Downer.  It can be difficult to question the day's predetermined objective in the face of peers. For many of us, it is easier to cater to the group's wishes. 

As an avalanche professional, I have stressed the importance of group communication in 25 years of teaching avalanche classes. I was surprised that my ski partner was questioning our objective. She is a skier that is rarely intimidated by conditions. For me, this should have been another red flag.

Fortunately, I found myself laughing at the absurdity of it all. Here was some of the worst skiing you could imagine. How could I have considered continuing on this slope? In the big picture, we are still in a global pandemic, and I already had all the information I needed. 

I share this story as a learning experience in human factors, perspective, and group dynamics. Keeping the big picture in mind can be difficult at the moment. There is value in comparing risk vs. reward in all walks of life, and riding in conditions like ours accentuates that comparison.

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