Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche today. Cohesive slabs resting on top of weak faceted snow is the main concern. Wind drifted slopes and cross-loaded gullies near and above treeline that have seen the most amount of loading will be most suspect  Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.  It's possible to trigger avalanches from long distances or from below. Any avalanche triggered could be large and dangerous.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Cohesive slabs resting on top of weak faceted snow continue to be found throughout the snowpack.  Moderate winds over the last several days have helped stiffen slabs especially near and above treeline and the upper ends of below treeline. Weak faceted snow that existed before the latest round of snow can be found near the ground or higher up near the interface of the new/old snow.  Any avalanche triggered could be dangerous with lots of natural obstacles near the ground.   

    Pay attention to obvious clues like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks as this is an indication you've found a slab weak layer combination. You may be able to trigger these avalanches from long distances or from below.  Avoid slopes or terrain steeper than 35 degrees being mindful of avalanche terrain that's above you.

    ENE aspect above treeline with a buried near surface facet layer. This slope collapsed when we stepped onto it before digging the pit.

Avalanche Discussion

As we push further away from the last significant loading event from early Sunday morning, avalanche conditions have slowly eased. After a widespread natural avalanche cycle during the storm and very touchy conditions Monday, triggering an avalanche has become more stubborn, but not impossible.  On small steep test slopes, we could get the slope to collapse and crack but not fully release.  Traffic in the backcountry has slowed down in the last several days. I suspect if we had more people out, we'd have more reports of avalanches than our last observed avalanche from Monday.  Avalanche danger has been lowered to moderate, but that doesn't mean you can let your guard down.

In travels, we continue to get loud thundering collapses and shooting cracks especially near and above treeline. At these elevations, we are finding more cohesive slabs from recent moderate to strong winds.  A poor snowpack structure of slabs over weak faceted snow is widespread throughout the range. Below treeline, we have thinner weaker slabs and avalanches at these elevations avalanches would be smaller but can't be ruled out.  It's safe to assume any slope has this suspect snowpack structure and can only be ruled out if you take the time to dig down into the snowpack to confirm otherwise.     

Terrain selection is the one tool we have right now to not put ourselves in harm's way.  Slowing down and sticking to terrain less than 30 degrees is a great way to keep yourself safe.  Always be mindful of what slopes may be above you as you could potentially release an avalanche from lower down on the slope.  Always consider the consequences of what would happen if you triggered an avalanche, especially in areas that have terrain traps where snow can easily collect.  Low angle wind-sheltered terrain is a great option today to avoid avalanche danger. 

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