Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

On Saturday, you may be able to trigger small avalanches in new snow, especially at upper elevations where the wind forms drifts. Steer around pieces of terrain steeper than 35 degrees where you see fresh wind features or cracks shooting through the snow. Expect a warm storm to bring just enough wind and snow by Saturday morning to maintain heightened avalanche conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    You may be able to trigger avalanches in areas of wind drifted snow on slopes 35 degrees and steeper above 5000ft. Carefully assess the upper snowpack as you travel, and look for cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches. Small, inconsequential slopes are good places to test the snow to see if it slides. To avoid triggering an avalanche, choose either wind-sheltered, lower elevation terrain, or low angle slopes less than 35 degrees. In wind affected terrain, steer around convex rollovers and pillows on leeward sides of ridges and below cornices.

    Winds on Friday night into Saturday will generally be out of the southwest. Monitor changing conditions as you climb up in elevation and transition into wind affected terrain. Use visual clues to help identify wind-drifted snow and look for sudden changes in snow surface texture and hardness. Blowing snow and fresh cornices are good indicators wind slabs likely exist nearby. 

    (11/21/2020) An example of cornices and a wind-loaded slope (left side) on the east aspect of Rock Mountain last weekend.

Avalanche Discussion

The big question for Saturday is how much snow will accumulate. The upper end of the forecasted snow totals are enough to pose risk to backcountry travelers. If the storm comes short of the forecast, avalanche hazard could be minimal.  If you find 6 inches of fresh storm snow or drifts deeper than that, you may be able to trigger an avalanche. 

Since Wednesday's storm, observers reported wind transport, a handful of shallow, human-triggered avalanches (D1) failing within new snow as well as loose avalanche activity.  A number of small wet loose avalanches ran on sunny slopes on Friday. You may find between 3.5ft to 5ft of snow on the ground in the Steven Pass zone, depending on aspect and elevation. Higher elevation, shaded slopes are generally holding the deepest snowpack. Snow coverage is above average for this time of year, but early season conditions still exist. Stay alert for open creeks, tree wells, crevasses, or other exposed hazards. Consider the consequences when choosing terrain. Falling or getting caught in even a small avalanche could result in a rough ride.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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