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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2012–Jan 12th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Dry and clear, with freezing levels near valley bottoms and moderate northwesterly winds. Friday: Increasing cloud in the afternoon with freezing levels briefly rising as high as 1500m. Saturday: Light flurries possible with freezing levels around 900m.

Avalanche Summary

A skier was killed in a Size 3 avalanche in the Dogtooth range near Golden on Friday. The 4th skier on the slope triggered the slide. On Saturday a skier triggered another Size 3 persistent slab avalanche in the Quartz Creek alpine, the crown averaged 100cm in depth & the avalanche was reported to have run full path. The group had been skiing in the area all day without result until the avalanche happened. Avalanche activity on Sunday was confined to operational explosive use & produced avalanches to Size 2 on high elevation NE facing slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and light to moderate precipitation settled the 40-60cm of recent storm snow and created upside down slabs and/or thin surface crust on Monday. Since then, light amounts dry snow is maintaining the snow supply for wind slab development, but cold temperatures are likely starting to improve storm slab stability. Touchy mid-December surface hoar is down anywhere from 40cm on the eastern side of the range to 150cm on the west side is recently produced easy snowpack test results that show a high propensity to propagate fractures. Check out this YouTube video posted by the Panorama ski patrol of an ECTP2 down around 40cm on surface hoar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_NQns2Nuh0. Basal facets remain a concern for human triggering in shallow snowpack alpine areas. When these persistent weaknesses are combined with weak wind slabs, thin trigger points, and other weaknesses within and under the recent storm snow, the result is a highly variable snowpack with the potential for deep slab avalanches, especially from heavy, thin spot, and/or step-down triggers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.