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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2019–Dec 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

20 - 30 cm of recent storm snow sits on a weak layer which teeters on the brink of becoming a touchy storm slab problem.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to field data and reports showing a wide variation in conditions throughout the region.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, light to moderate northwest wind, alpine high temperature -10 C.

MONDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -9 C.

TUESDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-15 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -4 C.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered flurries, moderate south wind, alpine high temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity to report from Friday and Saturday.

Reports from Thursday included sloughing and loose dry size 1 avalanches in the storm snow, as well as a persistent slab avalanche triggered remotely by a helicopter. It is important to keep in mind the potential for large, persistent slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of new snow has covered a layer of feathery surface hoar crystals that were observed at all elevations throughout the region. The new snow can be expected to gain cohesion and slowly settle into a slab especially at treeline and below.

The primary layers of concern at this time are a couple of weak layers in the mid snowpack, formed in late November and early December which can be found most notably at treeline, and may present as surface hoar, a crust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.