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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 3rd, 2019–Dec 4th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Higher elevation terrain may be accumulating enough snow for dangerous avalanche conditions.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: 20-40 mm of precipitation with snow line around 1200 m, 40 km/h wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around +1 C.

WEDNESDAY: Rain and snow ending in the morning then mostly cloudy in the afternoon, 30 km/h wind from the west, treeline temperatures drop to -2 C in the afternoon.

THURSDAY: Clear in the morning with increasing cloud in the afternoon, light wind from the south, treeline high temperatures around +2 C.

FRIDAY: 5-10 mm of rain, 30 km/h wind from the southwest, treeline high temperatures around +4 C.

Avalanche Summary

So far this season there has been insufficient snow on the ground to produce avalanches. Watch for areas where the current storm brings enough snow to cover the ground roughness.

Snowpack Summary

As storms track across the region the snow line fluctuates around the peaks of the South Coast region. Areas above 1200 m are likely accumulating some snow, but that same snow is likely getting rained on and melting away at times. Prior to these storms, the North Shore mountains had about 25 cm of snow on the ground and some higher alpine areas had slightly deeper deposits of crusty snow. As the weather clears on Wednesday afternoon there will be a clearer picture of where and how much it snowed. Avalanche danger will be heightened in areas that received at least 25 cm of fresh snow.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.