Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Significant recent snow, human-triggered avalanches, and additional precipitation are just a few reasons to cautiously approach the mountains on Monday. You could trigger shallow slabs that entrain additional snow and grow much larger. Conditions will only get more dangerous as the day goes by. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    More snow is on the way Monday. Unfortunately, this time it will come with warming temperatures that will create an upside-down snowpack. These shallow new slabs could fail easily on the colder, drier snow beneath. You may see cracking or small avalanches on convex rollovers. This will be particularly true near the Volcanoes, where more snow and warmer temperatures are expected. 

    Small shallow avalanches are concerning, but what’s scary is if they start to entrain the colder snow below. This could allow them to grow bigger. Additionally, there are still lots of potential weak layers in the upper snowpack. A skier accidentally triggered one such slide near Paradise on Sunday! Small slides entraining snow…slabs failing on older layers… in both cases, we’re talking about avalanches easily big enough to bury and kill you. They could wrap terrain features and run far downslope. 

    You’ll need more than an uptrack or small slope test to gather information about the snow conditions. Sometimes, the only thing you can do is dig and look. Or, better yet, use lower-angled and well-supported terrain.

    (1/7/2024)

    A skier triggered avalanche in the Mt Rainier area on Sunday. 

    Photo: Alli/Mt Rainier Nordic Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

Snowfall throughout the day with gradually warming temperatures will cause the avalanche danger to steadily increase. This will be particularly true for areas that receive an additional 8in or more of snow. However, it’s after sunset that the real action could start. Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions Monday night as temperatures peak, rain reaches into the middle elevations, and precipitation intensity increases. A significant natural avalanche cycle will probably occur. 

Things were pretty quiet around the West South on Sunday with one VERY notable exception. A skier triggered a very wide and deep avalanche near Paradise on Mt Rainer. The slide was reported as 2-2.5ft deep and wrapped around several terrain features. Fortunately, the skier was not injured. We don’t know what this slide failed on, but a good bet would be some type of weak persistent grain near the 12/30 crust. Other, much smaller snow machine triggered avalanches on Mt Adams were also reported. 

It’s been a good week in the West South. Since 12/30, most locations have received between 15 and 30in of new snow with total depths increasing by 1-2ft. Even still several crusts and weaklayers exist in the upper snowpack, and avalanches, like the one at Paradise, keep them at the forefront of our minds. Maybe Monday night’s avalanche cycle will help rid us of these unwanted guests. 

Folks continue to report excellent travel conditions in the West South, with a significant improvement in coverage. Lower elevations still suffer from the same ailment: open creeks, bushes, logs, and rocks.

Regions covered