Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Rain and warm temperatures have consolidated the snowpack over the last week.  It is unlikely, but not impossible to trigger an avalanche failing on weaker snow buried 2-4 feet in the snowpack.  As temperatures warm today and more rain falls on the snow, look for signs of wet loose avalanches such as rollerballs/pinwheels.  If you are sinking up to the top of your boots in wet snow, avoid steeper slopes and avoid being above terrain traps.  

This forecast is sponsored by Anthony Lakes Mountain Resort.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The Blues have received 3.5" of water over the last week.  Unfortunately, most of it has fallen in the wrong form!  Rain and warm temperatures have created a multitude of crusts within the snowpack.  Warming temperatures today accompanied by rain will make wet loose avalanches likely.  Look for signs of wet loose avalanches such as rollerballs/pinwheels and if you step off your machine or boards, if you are up to your boots in wet snow, it's time to scoot!   Even a small wet loose avalanche could carry you into terrain traps such as gullies, creeks, over cliff bands, or into trees.  

    Photo: Nick Burks

    Recent rollerballs and pinwheels such as this are good signs that you can find wet loose avalanches. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The warm temperatures and rain over the last week have helped the persistent slab problem in the Blues.  The loose, sugary, faceted snow near the ground is showing signs of gaining strength- but as they say- "don't trust a facet until it is in the river!".  Recent snowpack tests on Wednesday from forecaster Nick Burks show his whole column failing on these facets that sit above a very hard icy bed surface.  Slab + Weak Layer + Bed Surface= the potential to trigger an avalanche.   Check out his observation here. 

    Over the border in Washington, recent observations from the Northern Blues have shown inconsistent snowpack test results.  Some snowpack tests are showing propagation of the weak layer, some are not.  This is quite common as the slab strengthens and becomes more cohesive above the weak layer.  Remember poor snowpack structure (Hard over Soft) always trumps a "false negative" snowpack test.  Check out a recent observation from Vintners Ridge/Teepee Point here. Thanks for the observation submissions! 

    (1/24/2024)

    This Compression Test failed in weak snow just above a Knife hard crust on the 19th tap. There was a big pop and drop.

    Photo: Nick Burks

Avalanche Discussion

The average height of snow found in the Southern Blues on Wednesday at 5300' was around 4 feet.  A few inches of new snow was at the surface, with numerous melt-freeze and rain crusts throughout the middle of the snowpack.  Rain Runnels (water channels that appear as indents in the snow) were evident, and Nick found the most recent rain to have only saturated the snow down to about 6" below the surface.  The riding might not be the best these days in the Blues, but out of all of our forecast zones, this is where you will have the least chance of triggering a deadly persistent slab avalanche.  We are still not out of the woods though.  Use safe travel protocols, avoid riding above terrain traps, and don't hang out below avalanche runout zones.  Check out Nick's observation from Wednesday here.

Freezing levels are expected to be above ridgeline elevation in the Blues this weekend.  Wet Loose avalanches will become very likely with increasing temperatures and rain.  It will not be out of the question for a wet loose avalanche to add enough weight to the snowpack and trigger a deeper more destructive avalanche on buried persistent weak layers.  

We appreciate all of the observations that have been coming into the WAC from all of our zones.  It truly adds value to your forecast.  Keep 'em coming! Submit your obs here. 

Kelly McNeil will bring you the forecast through the weekend.  Expect some changes with warming temps and rising snow levels.  

 

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