East Slopes Central

Monday will be a transition day as temperatures dip and winds increase ahead of Tuesday's storm. Unfortunately for the East Central zone, not much precipitation is expected over the forecast period. But keep an eye on the surface, and if you're sinking into snow deeper than your ankle, start thinking about increased avalanche potential.

You can largely expect isolated flurries on Monday, accompanied by gusty winds. With a lack of existing snow available for transport, this first storm wave likely won't be enough to drive much avalanche hazard. But if you're closer to the crest, a convergence zone hovering from Snoqualmie to the Mountain Loop may result in a few locally deeper storm totals. Keep tabs on how much new snow has fallen wherever you're out playing, and if it's deeper than your ankle, start thinking about consequential slides.

At upper elevations, this will likely come in the form of shallow wind slabs in the usual locations. Take an extra minute to investigate leeward ridgelines, convex features, or confined gullies/chutes for wind-loading before committing to a slope. Even if they exist, they should be small. But don't get tripped up by one in consequential terrain.

The bigger issue may be getting to elevations with snow. Access to the mountains remains a challenge due to patchy snow, washed-out roads, and downed trees. Maybe these aren't much of a problem if you're walking/hiking, but if you're planning to ride a sled or ski, you might have a hard time.

If you can make it to snow-covered slopes, but new snow is minimal, avalanche conditions will be largely the same as in recent days. You may be able to push a small wet loose anywhere moist snow is deeper than your ankle. Overhead hazards such as snow clinging to rocky ledges, sagging cornices, or chunks of ice stuck to cliffs could fail without warning as the mountains shed their winter coat. These events are unlikely but may be more common during or shortly after periods of rain. If you're pushing into the far reaches of the East Central zone, seeking bigger mountain adventures, these hazards could be more commonplace.

Partial clearing on Sunday night could allow the surface to firm up in some locations, creating difficult travel in the morning hours. These same areas could also result in slips and long, uncontrolled slides. Be sure to bring the right equipment to travel safely over firm surfaces and know how to use it.