Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Remotely-triggered, snowbike-triggered, and natural avalanches were reported on Monday indicating a touchy snowpack.  You can trigger a dangerous avalanche on many slopes that did not fail naturally last week.  The crosshairs for triggering a scary slab avalanche point to slopes facing west to north to southeast.  Conservative terrain choices are your best defense to combat the tricky snowpack.  Under the current warming trend, wet avalanche concerns will develop on sunny slopes particularly those near rocky areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    You can easily trigger slabs 1 to 3 feet thick that fail on fragile facets and faceted crusts below the recent storm snow.  Avalanches can be remotely triggered from below steep slopes and they can propagate surprisingly wide distances.  On slopes that didn't avalanche during the cycle,  slabs are likely to be triggered near and below treeline on the aspects highlighted in the distribution rose.  The same problem is possible above treeline.   To avoid an encounter with a large avalanche, choose slopes that are consistently less than about 30 to 35 degrees that don't connect to steeper terrain above you.

    This photo from Cement Creek illustrates how persistent slabs can be triggered from a long ways away from the start zone.  The avalanche was remotely triggered by a snowmobile on 2/27.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Warming temperatures and sunshine could trigger small wet loose avalanches on steep, sunbaked slopes today.  The problem will be obvious if it develops: you'll see rollerballs, pinwheels, or small sluffs starting to shed from very steep terrain and from below rock outcrops.  Stay wary below steep gullies or in consequential terrain if you feel the snow surface getting sticky or gloppy.  There is isolated potential for a small wet loose avalanche to trigger a larger persistent slab where the problems overlap.

    This wet loose avalanche ran yesterday on a hot, sunbaked slope of Mt. Crested Butte.  It wasn't large enough to bury you, but it could ruin your day if it pushed you into trees or over cliffs.

Avalanche Discussion

Evidence from the field points to tricky and dangerous avalanche conditions.  Steep slopes that did not avalanche during last week's natural cycle are where human-triggered avalanches remain LIKELY.  Yesterday, a skier descended the looker's right side of Red Lady Bowl without incident and a very short time later, a natural avalanche ran and completely removed the tracks from the slope; truly a close call.  Another observation shows a widely-propagating avalanche triggered by a snowbike near the Y at Kebler Pass on a northwest-facing slope below treeline; the exact details of this event remain uncertain.  Near and below treeline slopes are where you can find the nasty, February weak layer at its worst.  Prior winds were not able to disrupt the weak layer at lower elevations.  Test results from shady terrain on Snodgrass clearly suggest this terrain remains worrisome for human-triggered avalanches.  Alpine terrain offers a degree of uncertainty...prior winds created a lot of wind board and damaged the weak layer in many places.  Even though there is uncertainty about the sensitivity of the Persistent Slab problem in the alpine, there is NOT uncertainty about the large size potential.  This observation from Baxter Basin points to dangerous conditions even in places battered by the winds prior to last week's storm.  The string of avalanches well after the storm reinforces the need for conservative terrain choices and decision-making.  As always, mellower slope angles provide the greatest protection from triggering a dangerous avalanche.

Tuesday will bring temperatures a few degrees warmer than Monday.  Wet Loose avalanche activity has remained relatively small and largely initiated from steep rocky areas.  You can see evidence in these two observations (ob 1, ob 2).  You can expect similar conditions today as warm temperatures and the sun soften and wet the snow surface.  Although unlikely, there is a chance that a Wet Loose avalanche could trigger a deeper slab avalanche where it overlaps with the Persistent Slab problem, or release a Wet Slab in very warm terrain beneath rocky outcrops.  Wet, mushy surface conditions are a clear indication that conditions are past prime on sunny slopes and you should move to a cooler aspect that hasn't become as wet.

 

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