Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

On Monday, ongoing snow and strong wind will maintain very dangerous conditions. We expect very large slab avalanches to occur naturally. This is a good day to stay out of the backcountry, or at the least avoid avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2

    Avoid avalanche terrain at upper and middle elevations, and don't linger in runouts where avalanches could come from above. Stay well away from steep leeward slopes. If you experience whumpfing collapses or see avalanches break into deeper layers, you will be dealing with unmanageable persistent slab conditions. See more below.

    Southwest winds could be extreme on Sunday night, and gusts will remain strong enough on Monday to form thick wind slabs. Recent snow accumulation could approach 2 feet, and drifts will be deeper. 

    (2/6/2025)

    This large (D2) slab avalanche was likely triggered by cornice fall. Estimated crown depth is 1.5-2ft. Liberty Bowl, NNW, 7,200ft

    Photo: NCMG

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5–3

    Put a large buffer between where you travel and all slopes over 35 degrees.  Expect that avalanches could run into runouts and valley bottoms. Heed the warning of any whumpfs or cracks that break into deeper weak layers

    It won't take much to awaken the avalanche dragons in our weak snowpack. The new snow will stress weak layers throughout the zone. We expect avalanches will run naturally on older January weak layers.

    (3/2/2024)

    An example of a very large avalanche on Kangaroo Ridge from last season.

    Pk 8183, WNW, 7,600ft

    Photo: Willie Webster

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You may still be able to trigger wet avalanches at low elevations. While many will be smaller, some could be large and dangerous. Use extra caution if you see avalanches gouging deep into the snowpack or wet slabs breaking on deeper weak layers.

    (2/23/2025)

    Wide, but shallow wet avalanches that ran to the ground in the foothills of the Methow Valley

    Photo: WSDOT

Avalanche Discussion

The coming wind events, in addition to snow and cooling temperatures, are maintaining very dangerous conditions. While we know it's been snowing (and raining) and the wind will be blowing, we haven't received much direct information on avalanche conditions in over a day. Our confidence in the forecast is lower than normal, but it's very likely that natural avalanches are occurring. 

Overall, the snowpack in the zone is weak, faceted, and variable. Facets from the January Drought Layer (JDL) are the main concern, about 1.5-2.5 feet below the surface. They were responsible for the large collapses and sudden test results earlier this week with only warming temperatures. As the snowfall adds up, we expect unstable conditions to return.

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