Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You could still trigger avalanches in wind-drifted snow on steep slopes below corniced ridgelines. A lengthy sun break or two could warm southern slopes enough for wet avalanches. Watch for cracks shooting through stiff snow slabs or heavy wet snow as signs to back off steep terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs that formed over weak or slick surfaces may still be reactive on Tuesday. Steep exposed slopes below ridgelines and confined chutes are the most likely places to trigger a wind slab. You can identify wind-affected snow by surface texture or drifts around rocks and trees. Quick hand pits in wind-affected terrain or small steep test slopes are useful for observing how the snow reacts. Cracking or mini avalanches are signs that you could likely trigger a wind slab. 

    Consider steering around steep slopes in wind-affected terrain. If you are relying on test slopes or hand pits, it is important to keep in mind that the recent snow fell on inconsistent and variable surfaces. So, a test slope result in one area may not apply to another nearby slope. There is also a less likely potential for a wind slab to step down to more deeply buried weak layers and be larger than you expect. Consider the consequences of triggering a large or widely propagating avalanche in the terrain you're traveling in. 

    (2/7/2025)

    An example of cracking in wind-drifted snow, signaling unstable wind slabs.  (Teanaway, 02/07).

    Photo: Payton Schiff

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    There is some uncertainty in the cloud cover for Tuesday, but with mild temperatures and the chance for prolonged sun breaks, southern aspects could warm up quickly. So you could see rollerballs or small, wet loose avalanches at lower elevations. These avalanches may run naturally from trees and rocks shedding snow onto steep slopes below or you could trigger them on a steep slope in the sun.  If the snow starts to feel wet and heavy, move to shadier or lower-angle terrain. 

    (4/9/2021)

    Examples of wet loose avalanches initiated from steep rocks shedding snow. 

     Photo: Primomo

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

     With the recent snow and warming temperatures, it is time to let our weak and variable snowpack adjust to the changing conditions. This is a low-likelihood, high-consequence situation. While you'd be unlucky to find just the right spot for triggering one of these avalanches, the subsequent avalanche could take you for a nasty ride and/or fully bury you. With persistent slab problems, you may or may not observe signs of instability before triggering an avalanche. The safest travel choice is simply to avoid steep north-facing terrain, particularly on wind-loaded slopes below ridgelines or the base of cliffs.

    You can dig down and identify the weak, sugary snow layers 1-2ft below the recent snow and see how they react in snow stability tests. But, with persistent slab problems, you may or may not observe signs of instability before triggering an avalanche. The safest travel choice is simply to avoid steep, northerly terrain, particularly on wind-loaded slopes below ridgelines or the base of cliffs.

    (2/14/2025)

    You can clearly see the grey-ish line of weak facets in the wall behind the failed snowpack test. These weak grains aren't hiding, they're easy to spot. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

On Monday, temperatures bumped above freezing at most mid-elevation weather stations. Expect continued warming on Tuesday, with light winds and some morning sun breaks before high clouds begin to move into the area. A transition from snow to rain on Monday and cool overnight temperatures will form a crust on all aspects at lower elevations in the western edge of the zone. New surface crusts might not be as apparent in areas further east, where precipitation ended before the warm-up. Overall, snow totals from this weekend's storm were significantly higher closer to the Cascade Crest, so expect any avalanches to be larger and more likely in areas like Salmon La Sac.

The recent storm favored the western edge of the zone, with minimal snowfall further east. There have been minimal reports of avalanches or signs of instability, and those that occurred were small and isolated to wind-loaded terrain.  We also don't have any observations of the persistent slab problem becoming more reactive, and there have still been no confirmed persistent slab avalanches. Although the January Drought Layer (JDL) is still weak and widespread, the lack of avalanche activity is notable. We are gaining confidence that this weak layer might just not be as reactive in East Central as it is in other zones, however with the temperatures still increasing we're not quite ready to put it in the rear view mirror. 

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