Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches from wind loading are likely today, and natural avalanches are possible.   Triggering a wind slab could produce a much larger avalanche on weak-faceted snow buried 2-4' from the surface.  The safest and most enjoyable riding will take place at lower elevations and in wind-protected areas.  

This forecast is sponsored by M Crow in Lostine.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Extreme weather can create unusual avalanche behavior.  We have received observations from the Northern Wallowas on 2/12 and 2/14 of observed avalanches. 

    Wind slabs will be prevalent and sensitive today to the weight of a rider.  Use caution if traveling in open terrain, as you can trigger wind slabs above you.  Look for blowing snow, textured surfaces, and pillow or lens-like deposits, and avoid steep slopes where you see any of these signs.  Fresh wind loading may increase the chances of triggering a high-consequence persistent slab avalanche on steep open slopes.

    With the intensity of the wind, you may observe wind loading further downslope than expected.  Winds can behave erratically, loading slopes in multiple orientations.  It's best to avoid this hazard altogether, especially knowing we have much weaker snow buried 2-4' below the snow surface.  

    Photo: SD

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    We have weak snow, buried 2-4' below the snow surface, and although we haven't seen much activity on these January Facets it doesn't mean they should be written off.  Unfortunately, you probably won't receive any feedback before it's too late.   It's easier to rely on shooting cracks, whumpfing, and natural avalanches to deter us from stepping out onto slopes that are tempting.  You can dig down and assess the various snow layers, and you may not receive alarming test results, but some of the best in the business don't ski or ride slopes greater than 30 degrees when they know the slope has a persistent weak layer, with a slab above! 

    This very fragile weak layer was found under 2' of Feb storm snow on an East Aspect at 5,300' in the Blues.  

    Photo: Victor McNeil

Avalanche Discussion

Uncertainty:  As forecasters we often discuss uncertainty, and as this increases the best solution for managing ourselves is terrain.  Terrain and where we choose to travel is the only element we have control over.  Because of spatial variability, we have no way of knowing what the snowpack structure is beneath us unless we dig.  Even then we could slightly change aspects or elevations and find changes in the snowpack.  With poor snowpack structure, we should increase our margins, dial it back, and slow down.  If you are interested in this topic we suggest you take a look at this article titled, "Users' Awareness and Response to Uncertainty Information in Public Avalanche Forecasts."

Snowpack considerations: When the weather becomes erratic, so does the snowpack.  Strong to extreme winds in many parts of our forecasting zones have left us with variable depths of wind slabs, especially in more open terrain features.  You're likely to find wind slabs in locations where you wouldn't normally expect to find them.  The January Facets haven't really come alive, but each time we have a significant weather change they are back on the table.  This is a good time to hit the reset button on the way you view terrain that maybe you've been riding in, on, or around.  If you are visiting this region for the first time this winter, spend some time digging into the snow and look for strong snow, overriding soft or weak snow.  

The January Facets are pronounced at mid and low-elevation terrain on all aspects.  If you dig into the snowpack, you'll see them below the Feb. storm snow.  We've been receiving inconsistent results in our various snowpack tests, primarily because there hasn't been enough of a slab above the weak facets to observe failures.  This is considered a false positive result because anyone who's been around snow long enough knows that persistent grains (surface hoar, depth hoar and facets) are dangerous and unpredictable.  If you find a location with a more cohesive slab above the facets you may see failures in your testing.  Triggering a surface instability (wind slab/storm slab) increases the odds of a much larger avalanche failing or "stepping down" to the Jan. facets and in some locations 1/31 Buried Surface Hoar.

 Submit an observation to help WAC Forecasters reduce uncertainty. It can be short, simple, and even anonymous. Any information you have will help us write more accurate forecasts that will, in turn, better help guide your backcountry decision-making.

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