Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Wet loose and wind slab avalanches are the primary concerns today. Rain-on-snow will increase instability on all aspects below and near the treeline. Southerly wind will transport new snow into drifts on leeward terrain, most commonly north facing aspects. Avoid traveling on slopes greater than 30° if you observe roller balls or shooting cracks. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Sustained warm mountain temperatures combined with rain-on-snow expected up to 8,000+ feet today increases the likelihood of wet loose avalanches on all aspects below and near the treeline. As water works its way through the snowpack it can exploit any weak layers and trigger an avalanche that starts small and then grows as it entrains more wet snow moving downslope. These avalanches can be small yet mighty as they could carry you over hazardous terrain such as a section of cliffs. 

    If you observe roller balls or if you're sinking deep into wet snow when you step off your sled, skis, or board, this is an indicator that wet loose instability is on the rise.

    (4/10/2024) Photo: Cory Beattie

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    While it's been warm and wet down low across the forecast area, the wind has hammered the upper ramparts of Mount Shasta for days. The wind will continue today with one to three inches of new snow in the forecast for terrain above the treeline.

    Wind slabs that form today will be shallow and isolated. Your likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches will be highest above 10,000 feet on slopes that face north, northeast, and east. Approach steep leeward aspects carefully. Be on the lookout for snow that appears "pillowy," shooting cracks, and unusually deep snow as signs of wind loaded snow. 

    Shallow wind slab triggered on convex roll 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

Plain and simple, the snowpack doesn't appreciate any kind of rapid change. We have two factors at play today that will test the strength of the snowpack: rain-on-snow and wind. While the amounts of precipitation are meager compared to the typical wet and wild Mount Shasta storms, it still holds the potential to lubricate the snow near the surface until it cuts loose and slides downslope. Above the treeline, the wind will transport one to three inches of new snow into deeper slabs on leeward terrain.

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