Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Conditions have slowly improved under the dry weather, but the potential for you trigger a dangerous avalanche persists.  The most probable places to find trouble are the northern half of the compass near and above treeline.  You can reduce your risk by avoiding drifted terrain features.  Default to lower slope angles, southerly aspects, or terrain below about 10,500' when in doubt.    

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Potential continues for human and remote-triggered slabs that fail 1.5 to 3 feet deep on depth hoar, facets, and faceted crusts.  Northerly and easterly facing terrain near and above treeline has been most active this month due to thicker slabs over well-developed weak layers. Cracking and collapsing are obvious signs of instability, although your first clear signal could be a dangerous avalanche due to variable and diminishing feedback.  In the Southeast Mountains, slabs are most likely to be triggered in terrain where slabs are more cohesive from previous windloading. The most reliable way to manage this problem is by choosing slopes less than 30 degrees. Wind-protected southerly aspects and elevations below ~10,500' offer safer snowpacks, where slabs are less common and weak layers are often capped by stronger crusts. 

    A large persistent slab on a windloaded slope near Crystal Peak that likely ran last weekend. 

    (1/11/2026) Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Recent variable northerly winds have transported snow and formed slabs on leeward terrain features.  Two recent avalanches, Daisy Pass and Purple Ridge, suggest you could encounter this problem on isolated features at upper elevations.  Avoid smooth textures, stiffer-feeling snow, and terrain with active wind loading.  The size is expected to remain small, but taking a ride in any avalanche can prove dangerous.  Releasing an avalanche in a surface drift, on the north half of the compass, could act as a trigger for a deeper breaking avalanche.

    (1/15/2026)

    A recent Wind Slab avalanche on Purple Ridge.  There is a set of tracks that appear to go in and out of the slide, but we can't be sure of the trigger.

    Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

As time increases since the last major loading event at the end of last week, avalanche conditions have slowly improved.  However, a very large natural avalanche on Wednesday, this natural avalanche on Mount Baldy from Saturday, another recent natural slab on Mineral Point, and a pair of small Wind Slabs (Daisy Pass, Purple Ridge) highlight that some slopes could produce a dangerous avalanche, and conditions are not 'open season'.

This natural avalanche off Ant Peak (just north of the CBAC forecast boundary near Marble) commands some attention.  Although the exact details are uncertain, this slope may have failed from wind loading on Wednesday.  Another avalanche of this size would be exceptionally rare, but it highlights that some slopes linger near a breaking point.

A prolonged period of gusty, northerly winds formed smaller surface slabs at upper elevations.  Evidence from Daisy Pass and Purple Ridge suggests that adding a Wind Slab problem was a reasonable choice.  A wide potential distribution is shown to cover uncertainty for variable northerly wind directions around the range.  Expect drifts to be most sensitive where they formed above dry, old snow surfaces on northerly aspects.

Backcountry travelers have begun stepping out into larger terrain features and testing the waters on suspect aspects over the past few days.  If you are considering steeper terrain, a good strategy is to begin with smaller slopes with lower consequence runouts free from trees, cliffs, or gullies.  You can hedge your bet on stability by choosing terrain that might forgive a mistake.

In general, terrain below about 10,500 feet has been quiet over the past few weeks with a relatively small number of avalanches.  This is particularly true in the Southeast Mountains, where slabs are typically thinner and softer, above the Christmas Crust.  This terrain offers a notably less risky option when compared to upper elevation slopes.  Some exceptions could exist as you climb above 10,500 feet, as slabs grow stronger and crusts become thinner.

 

Upcoming Outreach Events:  

Fireside Chat:  Jan 23 Dave Scheefer "Historical avalanches in Gunnison County."  CB Museum 5-7 pm

Trailhead Days: Jan 23 Slate River 10 am-2 pm

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