East Slopes South

There is minimal snowpack and mountain road information for the East South zone. Nonetheless, accessing the mountains is ill-advised due to flooding, erosion, and downed trees blocking road access in other zones. If you do get into the mountains and find continuous snow coverage up high, keep an eye out for unstable wet snow above and icy surfaces at/below you.

The forecast region is experiencing yet another atmospheric river on Monday. Areas closer to the Cascade Crest should see close to another half inch of rain soaring past NWAC elevation bands. This will be combined with strong to extreme wind. These rain totals are chump change compared to what we experienced last week. Still, communities already grappling with major infrastructure damage are facing new flooding warnings and wind advisories. If you plan to push it into the mountains on Monday, make sure you are absolutely dialed with all of the tools at your disposal to make it a safe and successful day. Emergency resources are already strapped, and we have extremely limited snowpack information to build much confidence in the forecast due to difficult access. All we know is that in the nearby East Central zone, continuous snow coverage begins around 6000 ft. We are assuming the snow line may be slightly higher in the East South zone.

With another round of rain, assume wet snow avalanches are back on the table. This includes wet loose, wet slab, and glide avalanches as well as cornice fall. A couple of factors may be working to keep the likelihood lower. Those things could be very firm surfaces that will need to break down first in order to weaken the snowpack, and strong to extreme winds that would aid in keeping said surfaces from weakening. Nevertheless, it'll be worth your time to keep this problem on your radar. With the unprecedented amount of rain our forecast just saw, there is likely still water flowing through and under the snowpack.  A bit more water on top could reawaken wet snow instability. Pay attention to the terrain above you and don't cross slopes where glide cracks are visible. If you run into sloppy, wet snow where you're sinking down past your boot tops, consider avoiding steep slopes.

It goes without saying that exposed hazards abound. Watch for shallowly buried rocks, trees, and high-flowing creeks. Recognize that even small slides can have big consequences when the snowpack is so thin. In a similar vein, slipping and falling on icy, refrozen surfaces could result in a long, uncontrolled fall. Consider carrying sharp, self-arresting equipment and make sure you know how to use it.

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.