Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Unusually dangerous avalanche conditions still exist despite several days without precipitation. There are good chances a person could trigger a very large avalanche in any of our forecast zones. These avalanches could be triggered from flat terrain below steep slopes or from ridges above. The best way to have a safe day is to stick to low angle slopes and make sure there is nothing steep above you.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: A very large natural avalanche cycle occurred last Thursday and Friday in Summit Lake, which included avalanches on slopes in places that people commonly ride like the Japan Trees and the south side of Tenderfoot. Very large avalanches were documented from north to south on both sides of the road.

    There is a very weak layer of snow buried 2 to 4' deep throughout zones. Because this weak layer is so sensitive in places, it could be triggered from flat terrain below a steep slope. This is an unusual set-up especially for Turnagain Pass, Girdwood, and Seward, which typically have a stronger snowpack. Yesterday, an observer in Turnagain Pass noticed obvious signs (red flags) that the snowpack is still primed to avalanche, which included a natural avalanche and whumpfing. An observer in the Summit area yesterday also reported whumpfing. Temperatures were above 32° F yesterday in the alpine and remained above 32° overnight, which is another red flag. All of this is clear information that the snowpack needs more time. 

    This is a frustrating problem to be dealing with and the weak layer is going to take time to strengthen. The best way to completely avoid this problem is to stick to simple terrain (check out the ATES map for a route planning tool). Simple terrain is less than 30°, is not connected to steeper slopes above, and doesn't have terrain traps like gullies below. If you are heading towards steeper terrain, choose a low angle approach, travel one at a time on steep slopes, and be ready to rescue.

    (1/19/2026)

    Large natural avalanches that occurred during the storm last week between Manitoba and Wilson South.

    Photo: Willie Webster

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Northerly ridgetop winds are still blowing strong enough this morning to build some fresh wind slabs in the alpine. These winds have been building wind slabs for several days so there are a variety out there that could be up to 2' deep. The fresh ones should be softer and more reactive and the older ones might be more firm and stubborn. Either way they feel like firm snow over softer snow and can be found below ridgelines. If you trigger one of these avalanches, it could be enough weight to trigger one of the larger and more dangerous avalanches discussed above. 

    (1/19/2026)

    Last lap our track had completely filled in from wind transport from about an hour earlier.

Regions covered