Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Upper elevation slopes have the most concern, as strong winds over the last week have drifted and pressed the surface into harder slabs.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow underfoot, which will appear round and lens-shaped.  Deeper down in the snowpack you may find weak layers of snow near the ground, or in the middle of the snowpack.  Avoid slopes where you get obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks. Sticking to lower-angled wind-sheltered terrain will provide better and safer riding conditions.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Facets and depth hoar continue to linger near the ground, especially on some slopes where we have a shallow snowpack (< 1.5 m of snow).  This deeper persistent slab problem is not as widespread as it was earlier in the season and a week plus of high pressure has made triggering a persistent slab avalanche more difficult at these deeper depths.  But if you were to hit a "sweet spot" in likely trigger points on the margins of the slab or near rock outcrops, it could produce a large avalanche. 

    In the middle and upper bits of the snowpack, you may encounter faceted crusts or weaker snow that rests under stiff hard hard slabs. Avoid slopes where you get obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks on the surface. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Strong winds over the last week have stripped and eroded some slopes and pressed others into harder slabs on the surface.  Avoid slopes where you find obvious wind-drifted pillows and slabs that feel stiff or hollow underfoot. These may appear rounded and lens-shaped.   Triggering one of these slabs has become increasingly stubborn, but if you were to pry one out, it could break widely across the slope and be a couple of feet deep, which would be able to take you off your feet.  It also has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. 

    Watch for large overhanging cornices above you as these cornices can break off and act as a large trigger on the slopes below. When traveling on a ridgeline, realize these cornices can break back further than you might expect. 

     

     

Avalanche Discussion

It certainly has felt like spring with warm temperatures and windy weather over the last week.  The NWS has placed us under a High Wind Warning for today through tonight with SW winds expected to gust in the 50 to 60 mph range.  Strong winds have helped strip and erode some slopes as well as press others into harder slabs on the surface. The focus will start to shift to the next storm which pushes into our area tonight into Sunday.  This system will come in very warm with lower-elevation rain and rounds of orographically driven snowfall at upper elevations.  Unfortunately, the bulk of this system looks to impact areas to our north in CO, but we could pick up upwards of 6 inches of snow by Sunday at upper elevations. 

Warm temperatures and high pressure since our last storm at the beginning of March have helped ease avalanche conditions, as slabs have been settling and the snowpack has been strengthening in a deeper snowpack than what we've seen all year.  Three big storms since the middle of February through the beginning of March have seen our snowpack nearly double in snowpack depth.  This has helped strengthen and heal our deeper persistent weak layers of depth hoar and facets near the ground on many slopes.  However, I've been finding slopes that have shallower snowpacks, where these layers have been slower to heal and strengthen.  This persistent slab problem is not widespread as it was earlier in the season but should be on your radar when traveling in avalanche terrain.  A probe pole can be a useful tool to help you identify any potential weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. 

Over the last week, warm temperatures, periods of intense sun, and strong winds have formed crusts and hard slabs on the surface as well as pockets of near-surface facets. With snow in the forecast starting tonight, expect newly formed slabs on the surface not to bond well to these firm hard surfaces.  There's still some uncertainty with snowfall amounts with this storm as we could see periods of intense snowfall so stay tuned.     

 

 

 

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