Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will increase as new snow and strong northwest winds begin to impact the region. Wind drifts exist near and above treeline and are most sensitive on south and east aspects. Steep leeward catchment zones, roll-overs, and ridgelines are features worth avoiding. Assessing for signs and symptoms of instability and having a conservative mindset are essential today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The storm will peak in the second half of the day and into the evening, along with the avalanche danger. Be wary of any steep, leeward terrain that has been subjected to the winds and new snow during these times. As always, recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and collapsing are bulls eye indicators telling you the snowpack is unsafe.  

    Over the past 72 hours, a predominantly northwest wind direction has been blowing at an average speed of 17 mi/hr. As time progresses, steady winds and new snow will provide ample ammunition for the continuation of this problem. Many ideal bed surfaces exist near and above treeline for new snow to slide on. As snow begins to accumulate below treeline, exposed areas will likely be influenced by the wind and form small drifts in isolated and steep locations.    This problem can be identified in several ways. Surfaces will often display wavy or rippled textures on leeward aspects. Catchment zones may host pillow-like snow shapes and could range from thin to thick or hard to soft snow. Drifted snow will also display denser snow near the surface. By feeling the density of the surface snow and what's below it, you can gain an idea of wind loaded locations near and around you.    An observation from above treeline on a southeast aspect highlighted multiple interfaces within the top 60 cm of snow. Hand pits and shovel shear tests discerned these interfaces to be reactive and the likely layers of instability riders may face.    Other stability tests, like the CT and ECT, discerned weak snow beneath the December 30th crust. While that snow remains a layer of concern, we haven't experienced any avalanches on it yet and will continue to monitor it in the coming days.

Avalanche Discussion

If storm totals verify, watch for easily moving storm snow in steep terrain in the later half of the day. Wind transported snow will cause a continuation of this problem in the days to come, and the snowpack will need some time to adjust to the new load. As new terrain begins to open around the forecast area, don't throw caution to the wind. A recipe for an avalanche exists on Mount Shasta and the surrounding mountains are hosting a vastly different snowpack. Adopting an assessment mindset is critical in these times of elevated danger.  

Don't get caught unprepared. Extreme wind speeds, double-digit snow totals, and wind chills in the negatives are something to tread lightly around. Have the proper equipment and the knowledge to use it. Always carry the essential avalanche rescue gear. In addition, pack warm clothes, food water, first aid and rescue kit, navigation and communication tools. make a plan and tell somewhere you are going.   

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