Avalanche forecast

Lutak

Haines Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

15-20" new snowfall from the last 48 hours fell on top of a widespread crust and may not bond well. Look for recent avalanches, shooting cracks, or any whumpfing/collapsing signs that will indicate unstable condtions and slab formation. Be cautious and use wide wargins around any terrain greater than 30 degrees while avoiding runouts and terrain traps.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Last week, above freezing temperatures across all elevations of the Lutak zone caused the formation of a thick, widespread "end of year" melt freeze crust. With recent snowfall the end of year crust could act as a bed surface as new snowfall layers on top. As this new snow forms a slab on top by either deposition or wind, it will just needs a trigger to complete the recipe for an avalanche.

    New snowfall has consolidated in the lower to mid elevations, which already gives a slab potential for propagation. At higher elevations, new snow could still be less cohesive until wind effect changes that and promotes slab formation. Signs of recent avalanches, shooting cracks, or any whumpfing/collapsing signs are helpful in determine a developing slab within the new snow.

     

     

Avalanche Discussion

The "end of year" melt freeze crust on the upper part of the snowpack is the main sliding surface suspect currently as new snow falls and is distributed on top.  But, a weak layer of NSF (near surface facet) grains resting below the crust have been observed and distribution along with senstivity remain to be seen especially at elevations above treeline where the crust is less stout. Treat these slopes as guilty until proven innocent.  The weak layers above and below the crust could have widespread propagation potential and need to be tracked going forward

Also, from earlier this season, and now more than a meter deep, a few melt-freeze layers are present throughout the snowpack at all elevations and aspects. These layers have mostly been found to be healing but could fail and produce an unlikely though larger avalanche. Our overall warmer and wetter temperature regime this season has helped slow the development of persistent weak layers (PWL's) in the snowpack. However at higher elevations and further inland these grain types can exist, and will require continued assessment. 

The people you go out with, the way you communicate, and the way you practice risk reduction as a team throughout the day is equally important as the conditions.

Help us gather information about weather, snowpack, and avalanche activity by reading and submitting field observations. Useful observations can be anonymous and include: 

  • Natural or human-triggered avalanche activity
  • Signs of instability: Cracking, collapsing, or whumphing
  • Red Flag Weather: Precipitation, wind loading, warming temperatures and rain-on-snow
  • Surface hoar growth, snow depth, persistent weak layers, etc
  • Snow stability tests, or pit result and location, elevation, aspect, etc 

Were you caught, carried, injured or buried in a slide? We are all human and can benefit from lessons learned, please report incidents to Haines Avalanche Center staff confidentially.

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