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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2013–Jan 14th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Increasing hazard is tied directly to the forecasted warm up, which may not happen until Wednesday in this region. See the forecasters blog for some ideas about the changing situation.

Confidence

Poor - Freezing levels are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Monday:  Mod/Strong W/NW winds at ridgetop.  Freezing level at valley bottom.  No significant snowfall.Tuesday:  Warm air dominates the regions to the north, but it should remain cool in the Kootenay Boundary region.  Mod/Strong W/NW winds at ridgetop.Wednesday: Cold air remains in the valleys, temperatures between 1000m & 2500m rise as warm as +5c.

Avalanche Summary

No new significant avalanche observations, just reports of sluffing from steep terrain and small shallow skier controlled soft slabs.

Snowpack Summary

10 cm of light density snow fell Thursday adding to the 60 cm of rapidly settling storm snow that rests on the January 4th interface which consists of small facets, surface hoar (up to 12mm) in sheltered treeline and below treeline areas and sun crust on steep south and west facing slopes. The bonds at this interface are improving.  The layer is still alive and well in test pits but has not been reactive to human triggering in the last day or so.  Wind slabs created by the previously raucous SW winds have grown old & tired. The midpack is well bonded and strong. The November 28 surface hoar is still being found in isolated, sheltered below treeline locations buried 120cm. The deep crust/facet combo from early November still exists but seams to have gone dormant for the time being.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.