On a solid go-anywhere base, we are so close to "green light... ride it if it's white" avy danger. But there's a catch-
MODERATE avalanche danger is found on steep, rocky, upper elevation slopes, especially in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered wind drifts, along with more dangerous slides breaking to weak layers now buried deep in our snowpack are POSSIBLE.
Generally LOW avalanche danger is found on south facing terrain along with mid and lower elevation shady slopes.
Yesterday, I noted a few shallow wind drifts on the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, as a result of strong Wednesday night winds
Stubborn wind drifts linger on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies and may react to our additional weight. Lose the wind and you lose the problem.
Mark's time lapse of the big dig near Iron Mountain yesterday... it's becoming a major chore just to excavate a snowpit and locate the November facets (PWL)
It's increasingly clear... there's a light at the end of the Persistent Weak Layer tunnel. So, you're wondering... is it open season? Man, I think we are getting so close and the recent series of storms is a huge test. While the snowpack appears Herculean and for the most part unreactive, as I begin stepping into big terrain I know it's not entirely impossible the trigger a deep slide. All I need to do is find one weakness in the pack, pull the rug out from underneath, and the entire roof crashes down on me. Likely suspects include steep, rocky terrain or slopes that avalanched earlier this season that have remained thin and slightly weaker. It's a low probability/high consequence scenario. And unless you've got avalanche goggles and can peer into the layers of the snowpack from a distance, now is the time to continue stepping out cautiously, but with intent, gathering as much snowpack intel as we can along the way.
Snowpro and avy-savvy forecaster, Ted Scroggin, is our main man with the western Uinta plan. Yesterday Ted was stomping around the Steiner area and spotted this couple day old, rather meaty pocket on the east side of Lofty Lake Peak. Ted know the western Uinta's like no other and his solid insights on how the place works are found HERE.
A slew of additional Uinta avy obs are foundHERE.
Nowcast- A weak storm sliding to the north, opened the door to thickening clouds this morning along with rather mild temperatures registering in the upper 20's and low 30's. Southwest winds began bumping into the mid 20's late yesterday afternoon and ramped into the 40's and 50's overnight, continuing in that spirit early this morning. Winds have worked our big, open alpine bowls, but lose a little elevation and riding conditions are as good as it gets.
Forecast- Look for increasing clouds and scattered snow showers throughout the day. High temperatures climb into the low 30's and southwest winds ramp into the 50's and 60's near the high peaks as the day wares on.
Futurecast- A nice shot of snow slides through the region overnight and keeps snow going Sunday, delivering 5"-10" of dense snow. Another system is hot on the heels and arrives late Monday.
The image above provided by our good friends and partners at the NWS, clearly lays out the timeline for the next series of storms.
Huge thanks for all the great obs streaming in from the eastern front. Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Such a rock star! Huge thanks to Joey Manship for all the hard work and Herculean efforts getting the Nobletts Beacon Park up and running. Located on the northeast corner of the parking lot, give it a go and practice your rescue skills on a down day, or while you wait for your crew before a ride.
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
Issued at 03:33 on Saturday January 14th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Sunday January 15th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
