Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Stormy conditions will build shallow new wind slabs below ridgelines Saturday.  Steer around steeper slopes where you find smooth pillow-like drifts and denser wind-pressed snow.  Even a small avalanche can cause serious problems in the wrong piece of terrain like a rocky chute or another terrain trap. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    A fast-moving frontal system should bring more wind than snow to the Hurricane Ridge area on Saturday.  Fresh wind slabs should build on lee slopes below ridgelines and if the winds are as strong as forecast, they may form further downslope than usual.  You're more likely to find and trigger wind slabs on NW-N-SE aspects, at least in the Hurricane Ridge area.  Blowing snow and newly formed cornices will give you clues as to which aspects are being loaded.  You can choose lower-angled entrances off of ridgelines to avoid triggering a wind slab in the new snow.  

    If the storm exceeds snowfall predictions, larger and more consequential avalanches will be possible on lee slopes.  Monitor conditions during the day and step back to lower-angled and more sheltered terrain if necessary. 

    Even though we don't expect widespread large avalanches, you'll need to consider the consequences of a small slide in the wrong piece of terrain.  That could include taking a rough ride over hard, chunky avalanche debris from last week or exposed rocks, trees, etc.  

     

    Hurricane Ridge area

    Blowing snow along with freshly sculpted surfaces and cornices along ridgelines on Saturday to help tease out which aspects are wind loaded.

    (1/6/2023) Photo: Kaitlin

Avalanche Discussion

The sunshine forecast largely did not work out in the Hurricane Ridge area on Friday, ugh, with a low cloud deck hanging out near ridgeline much of the day.  This likely shut down the wet loose avalanche problem even with mild air temperatures.  

On Thursday, Professional observer Sam Luthy was back at Hurricane Ridge.  2-4" of new snow could be found over what we're regionally calling the MLK crust in wind sheltered areas, with up to 8" on wind-loaded lee slopes above treeline.  He found widespread surface hoar on all aspects.  We'll have to see if this layer is buried by the weekend storm.  Southerly aspects in higher terrain were largely scoured with lots of exposed rocks showing.  No new avalanches were observed (just small rollerballs and small wet loose on steep sunny aspects) but there was plenty of frozen debris from last weekend, especially on avalanche paths emanating from above treeline and northerly aspects. This debris is a travel challenge on its own, sometimes barely covered by new snow and sometimes barely buried.  We're still below normal snowpack-wise, so plan extra time to navigate other travel challenges and hazards, especially at lower elevations. 

2022-2023 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December-early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  New for this season, we will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through late April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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